In this post I will touch on some of my favorite Quarterbacks as well as the value & trap of the week.
Drew Brees vs ATL– Atlanta has yielded QB5 (Jameis Winston) & QB4 (Derek Carr) in the first two weeks, allowing them to throw a combined 7 touchdowns. In the 19 games that Dan Quinn has been the Falcons head coach, the defense has a total of 20 sacks. Drew Brees should have a clean pocket to pick apart this suspect Atlanta secondary. Brees has topped 300 yards passing and thrown for 3 or more TDs, in 6 of his last 9 home games.
Aaron Rodgers vs DET- I know people are panicking about the Green Bay offense, but this seems like a get right spot. According to the Westgate Superbook, the Packers are tied with the Colts for the highest implied team total of the week at 27.25. The Lions will probably be without two of their best defenders in pass rusher Ziggy Ansah (ankle) and linebacker DeAndre Levy (Quad). Detroit plays at such a fast pace, that Aaron Rodgers should see an uptick in volume this week. In 7 career games at Lambeau vs DET, Rodgers has 15 TDs (2 Rushing) to 3 INT.
Russell Wilson vs SF- After struggling with a high ankle sprain last week, Wilson has practiced in full this week. Playing against San Francisco might be the best matchup for QBs all year long. The pace at which the 49ers play (73 offensive snaps per game), gives way more opportunities to the opposing offense. Last season, Cam Newton averaged 29.2 passing attempts, and last week against the 49ers he had 40 attempts, leading to his Week 2 QB1 status. In Week 16 at home last season against the 49ers, Russ went for 260/3TDs on 29 attempts. I expect him to see at least 5-7 more attempts, and he always possess the rushing upside as well. I could easily see him being QB1 this week.
Ben Roethlisberger at PHI- The Steelers offense has started the 2016 season a little more balanced than we are use to seeing. This week that changes, as the Eagles have one of the top front 7s in the NFL. I like to target these “funnel” defenses, where they funnel the action to the passing game. The secondary stats for the Eagles are misleading through the first two weeks because they have faced two inept passing teams in the RGIII led Browns, and the vanilla play calling Bears. I look for an aggressive game plan from the Steelers, and see Big Ben picking apart this miserable Eagles secondary. I think Ben goes for 350/2TDs.
Honorable Mentions: Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer
Second Tier Plays
Matt Ryan at NO- Through two games the Saints are allowing an average of 343.5 passings yards. The Saints lost their top corner Delvin Breaux to a fractured fibula Week 1, and now lost cornerback PJ Williams to injury. New Orleans will now be starting two undrafted rookie CBs in Ken Crawley and De’Vante Harris. Hell they might as well throw me out there for a few snaps! Talk about a dream matchup for Matt Ryan, look for him and Julio to get their grove back in this week.
Marcus Mariota vs OAK- We all thought the Oakland Raiders would have a much better defense in 2016. However that has not been the case , allowing over 500 yards of total offense in both of the first two games. Drew Brees (Week 1) and Matt Ryan (Week 2) both finished as the QB2 against the Raiders. I would be much higher on Mariota if not for his lack of weapons. Still he is in a great matchup, and always has the potential for rushing upside.
Value of the Week
Ryan Tannehill vs CLE- Ryan Tannehill provides a solid floor with his rushing ability. He had a rushing TD in Week 1, and 35 yards rushing in Week 2. Those were against the Seahawks and the Patriots. This week he gets to lace them up against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns allowed both Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco to throw 275+ yards and 2 TDs. With Arian Foster out this week, I do not see the Dolphins leaning on either Jay Ajayi or Kenyan Drake. This should allow for Tannehill to have plenty of opportunity to carve up the Browns secondary. I think Tannehill has a good shot at finishing as a top 12 QB this week.
Trap of the Week
Andrew Luck vs SD – Let me first say I don’t think Luck is a bad play. However I am seeing many experts rank him a top 2 QB this week. I understand this game looks like a shootout with two very bad defenses, but I have my concerns with this Colts offense. After losing Donte Moncrief to injury, the Colts have zero depth at WR behind Phillip Dorsett. Quan Bray & Chester Rodgers barely made the 53 man roster, and those are the wide receivers up. T.Y. Hilton should be shadowed by Jason Verrett, who just absolutely shut down Allen Robinson (3/54) in Week 2. Luck will have to rely heavily on a 2nd year, 5’10” 185lb receiver in Phillip Dorsett, who has 23 career receptions, Undrafted TE Jack Doyle, and injury plagued TE Dwayne Allen. Those are not options I feel confident in. I see Luck closer to QB5-QB7 this week as opposed to QB1.